how realistic is hyperbitoinization?

How realistic is hyperbitcoinization (a tipping point where people start a rush to exit fiat for bitcoin in a fiat devaluation event http://ift.tt/1mLj7dy). Let's look at some global monetary and gold statistics.

Some talk about bitcoin perhaps one day matching or passing gold market cap. http://ift.tt/2wDERQo

at $4400 which Bitcoin has been above for some of this month, it already reached around 1% of gold market cap.

But what other global targets are there for comparison. Globally, all paper currency and coins are valued around $5 trillion - at $4400 Bitcoin was already 1.5% of that.

Paper currency plus bank balances and savings value around $90 trillion - so if Bitcoin got to $50k/BTC (10x recent bitcoin highs) bitcoin would be valued 1% of all money!

So where is the tipping point - where people sit up and take notice - I'm not sure, but 1.5% of all physical currency is already pretty interesting. What happens if/when Bitcoin gets to 10%? Which then gets within reach of 1% of money of physical and bank deposits/savings globally. At some point there has to be a tipping point where money leaving accelerates for fear of falling fiat and we see the adoption S-curve play-out http://ift.tt/2xNXq9H

The ETFs and institutional money have barely started yet, and historically gold price was influenced by the introduction of ETFs http://ift.tt/YP4kin

So will hyperbitcoinization happen, who knows. But the possibility is maybe not so far-fetched. It seems that bitcoin price news itself drives financial and other media interest - though maybe for reasons not so exposed to Bitcoin's value position.

(Some data from http://ift.tt/1maWkuk and http://ift.tt/2wDERQo)

What would a stable post S-curve adoption price look like economically or geopolitically?

Interesting questions. As we've seen in the eurozone it can be difficult for countries, like Greece, to have a single currency but divergent economic policy - with the Drachma in previous economic downturns, they had been able to exploit a weak exchange rate to rebound by exporting their way out of recession. On the other end we've seen Iceland currency drop 60% http://ift.tt/2jEmutz and recover faster. An interesting alternative or future strategy proposed by Icelander Sveinn Valfells was that Iceland adopt Bitcoin as a currency - with it's cheap geothermal power it has unique advantages for Bitcoin mining. http://ift.tt/2xNXrdL



Submitted September 19, 2017 at 04:48PM by adam3us http://ift.tt/2wDwNiO

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